Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Telecommunication Coverage in Nigeria.

ABSTRACT

Spatio temporal analysis of the impact of telecom network coverage in Nigeria entails the social, environment and economic implications of telecommunication in both rural and urban centers of Lagos state.

 The quest for modernization and the demand for effective communication necessitated the development of telecommunication industry.

However in Nigeria, the major backbone in the telecom sector was recorded until the Obasanjo administration. In sometimes 2000 when license was given to Vmobile to provide telecommunication services in Nigeria.

The growth of telecommunication now recorded another era when the impact is been felt in both rural and urban centers of Lagos, the telecom sector has also become a subject of international discuss as Nigeria was  rated the fastest  growing telecom industry in Africa, such  that it has provided employment and increase social  interaction among people.

 The telecom industry is divided  into and we have GSM operators (Global System Monitoring) and PCO operators. This research therefore focuses  on the impact of  telecom as it’s concern  Rural and Urban  taking into consideration GSM i.e. Vmobile now CELTEL Nigeria in particularly. 

In other to realize  the objectives of this study both  primary and secondary data  were used. The secondary  data were gotten from National Communication Commission and International   Telecommunication  Union while primary data  from questionnaire, two  types were (i) questionnaire for  general purpose  and questionnaire (ii)  for official purpose different sector e.g. Education, ICT, Agriculture, Health, and Banking.

In general questionnaire  the set of question solicited  information among other things  on the relationship between  income and expenditure on phone,  the call pattern of respondents in terms of family, friends and business, and its opinion of sectoral development and importance.

An interview was conducted, question were asked  by a member of the editorial board of Vee  network who shared more light on the  gray area of the environmental and health effect of GSM equipment.

 The  critical question  were analyzed  using computer system aided with MS EXCEL,  representing opinion and distribution of respondents with charts: pie, bar and multiple bar as the case may be.

 The hypotheses was tested  using Spearman’s  rank correlation statistics. And the line of best fit was also constructed between rural Lagos and  urban center.

 The findings of the study shows that, there is a  relationship in the impact  of telecom growth witnessed in urban  centers and that witnessed in rural Lagos.  This could also be seen  in the line of best fit of opinion poll conducted in both rural and urban centers in Lagos.

 The study also shows that telecom instead of reducing the rate of urban influence, it  has contributed to it,  instead it seems as a means of better  informing rural dwellers of where opportunities are bound for better options in education, business and Recreation. 

Therefore, it can be concluded that as telecom growth  is geometric  in Nigeria. It has also lead to growth or enhancement  of services  delivers  in different sector  except for health and agriculture were little impact is felt and this is due to the country level of development.

In conclusion, telecommunication  is an impetus  for achieving  optimal productivity social interaction and integration not only in urban center but in rural area.  Hence, it must not be compromised as the effective regulation  forward price  or tariff should be encouraged for accessibility by the poor.


 


 

 

                       

 

                            

 

 

                                                CHAPTER ONE

1.0           INTRODUCTION

The growth of telecom market in Nigeria continued at geometric rates, thereby sustaining the market as one of the fastest growing telecom market globally.  From about 2.3million lines at the end of 2002, the number of connected telephone lines increased to about 4.04million at the end of 2003 and 10.20million in 2004. These represent an average annual growth rate of about 115% between 2002 and 2004. Equally, the usage and penetration of Internet services witnessed commensurate growth. Internet users increased from less than half a million in 2002 to about 1.6million in 2003 to 1.8million in 2004, representing  increase in penetration from 0.3 in 2002 to 1.3 in 2003 to 1.4 in 2004.

The National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS), highlights national socio-economic development aspirations, being aware of the catalytic role typically played by mobile telecommunications in socio-economic development in Africa, GSM operators in Nigeria have developed a joint Economic Development (JED) framework to support the government in the actualization of its objectives as set out in NEEDS. But apart from these aims the social, economic and environmental impact of telecommunication network coverage in Nigeria. Since telecommunication helps to increase in social   terms-freedom of speech which is the self regulated contents and privacy which is personal information   generated on the phone will not be misused nor used by another without informed content of the principal. 

Economic impact will include increase in per capita-income, more even distribution of income, reduction   in the level of unemployment, increase in the supply of high level of manpower Environmental Impact of telecommunication which   has been a subtract between the Nigeria telecommunication and commission and the telecom operators on one hand and the people on the other hand as the emissions from telecom masts could be   harmful to human health, the report speculated that the emission could cause cancer and skin burns.

Telecommunications usage has caused growth and structural change in the economy, which in turn have led to growth in the use of transportation.

We explained in an earlier section of this report that travel savings are not the usual motivation for the implementation of teleprocesses but that travel saving could sometimes be a result. In this section, we focus on the economy as a whole and show how teleprocesses act to increase the use of transportation in the economy through restructuring that requires more movement of people and goods. These effects are related to but distinct from the geographic dispersion effects described in the previous section.

There are two underlying economic mechanisms: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitatively, telephenomena drive economic restructuring. Quantitatively, telephenomena drive economic growth. Both the qualitative effect of restructuring and the quantitative effect of growth stimulate higher levels of trip making.

The growing dependence of Nigeria business on telephenomena is shown by Morgan Stanley calculations that information technology capital as a share of total industry capital across the combined manufacturing and service sectors has grown from 0.4% in 1960 to 3% in 1991 (Roach, 1993).

The analysis of the above stated telecommunication variables would be counted out with the aid of Geostaistics which is a statistical method which where traditionally used in geo-sciences. These methods describe spatial correlation among sample data and use it in various types of spatial models. Geostatistics  changes  the entire methodology  of sampling, traditional sampling method  don’t  work with auto correlated data and therefore  the main purpose of sampling plan is to avoid spatial correlation.

 In Geostatistics there is no need in avoiding auto correlated or autocorrelation and sampling becomes less restrictive.

Geostatistics also changes the emphasis  from estimation  of average  to mapping  distributed population as in the case of analyzing  the spatial and temporal  dimension  of the impact  of telecommunication network  coverage in Nigeria.

 Geostatistics is defined above, explains not only its applications with Geographic Information Systems but also the numerous application of mathematical   analysis of varied spatial  database. Geostatistics is also applied in various branches of human geography particularly those involving the spread of disease (Epidemiology) the practice of commerce and military planning (logistics) and the development of efficient spatial  network (telecommunication).

 In analyzing the spatio-temporal dimension of telecommunication network, our observational methodology will dictate the accuracy of subsequent analysis, in geography, this issue is complicated by unique variables and spatial patterns such as geospatial topology. An interesting feature in geostatics, every location display some form of spatial pattern, it is not to  state  that all variables such as social and economic impact are spatial  dependent. Simply because network coverage are incapable of measurement separately from their surroundings. Such that there can be no perfect spatial distribution of network coverage of communities by CELTEL since that two or more communities can not share the network workstation thereby having different socio-economic impact on the area in different local government.

There are several difficulties associated with the analysis of spatial-temporal data, among are the boundary delineation, the location of study area boundary, moderable area unit and boundary delineation which is Lagos state, Nigeria and the positioning of boundaries affect various  statistics, the size alone has  larger implications,  consider the study of network coverage in the \telecommunication  industry in Lagos, where network coverage are expected to  be higher because of the high influence of population and urbanization, due to this Lagos state has the largest number  of covered area in Nigeria.                

Geostatistics application falls also with in Geographic  Information Systems, which can be thought of as a system for integrating  data from  various disciplines and formats to develop  information about specific geographic area or site. GIS have the capacity of receiving inputs of tabular data,  maps and statistics, GIS are related  to and can be linked with database management system, statistical programs, computer aided design and image processing as illustrated  below.

 

1.1     STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

Human need communication, and from early history, various means have been used to provide communications at a distances  with radio,  telephone,  television and computer links (network), which  is now an integrated apart of the society.   

The National Economic Empowerment Development  Strategy (NEEDS), highlights the national socio-economic development aspirations being aware  of the catalytic  role played by telecommunication in socio-economic  development. Developments framework to support the government in actualization of it’s objectives as s et out  in NEEDS.  The impact of CELTEL (one of the GSM operators in Nigeria). Which is evaluating   the impact of the network coverage growth in Lagos, whether it  conforms with the join economic development(JED) framework set-out by the GSM operators in the year 2004.

In evaluating CELTEL’s activity in Lagos the spatio- temporal dimension has to be considered which  is the  growth/increase  in number of base station  over the years and also the growth  in subscribers, if  it has led  to economic growth i.e.  increase in per-capita income, employment generation and diversification of the  economy. Both in he urban and rural part of Lagos state.

Telecommunication network coverage growth comes with different impact  both  in social, economic and environmental,  the need for a comprehensive  study and how it relates  to the years of  existence in a particular area (Lagos state to be precise). Since   telecommunication services is very cumbersome as its involves the movement of equipment such as boxes and wires. Then network use to be done through wires i.e. cable are tied all around poles and connections are made through  this means which are  not environmentally  friendly.  But now more sophisticated networking are in place  the use of satellite  signals and wireless phones and more recently  optic fibre and  the system  used i.e. how a GSM call  is connected by CELTEL.      

The process of connection  two subscribers requires a n  Interaction  between the various network element. Even though the process takes a few seconds, each element must perform a task before  the stage both in  reverse  term.    

MSC- Mobile Station Controller

BSC- Base Station Controller

BTS – Base  Transceiver Station

Human need telecommunication, and from early history, various means have been used to provide communication at a distance, with radio, telephone, television and computer links (networks). Which is now an integrated part of the society, it is now looks like our need of information is almost as great as our need for energy. The economic growth stimulated by telecommunications investment causes more use of transportation as the production and delivery of goods and services increases. Economic growth in turn causes further growth in telecommunications investment, and the cycle continues (Olorunfunda, 1991).

Productivity improvement leads in the long run to personal income growth. To the degree that a telecommuter, for example, consistently gets more work done in the same number of working hours, the employee and the organization perform better and incomes increase. Higher household incomes lead to more consumption of transportation, Spending is much higher for transportation; at the same time, elasticity of demand as personal income rises is higher for transportation than for information technology.

Telecommunications and teleprocesses also create structural changes in the economy that lead to more use of transportation. The most important of these are a more rapid pace of activity and increased pressure for improved performance.

Companies tend to move faster in the face of competition coming from all directions

Telecommunication can play  in economic growth and social integration and its impact in terms of the environment.

Apart from the socials impact which are freedom of speech, cultural enhancement in terms of the colour, race, sex, language and religion etc. and the Economic Impact, which are increase  in the supply of high level manpower and diversification of the economy.

On a broader scale telecommunication has a great impact of Health, Agriculture, Education, Transportation and Administration.  

The spatio-temporal analysis of the above variables and the effect of the telecommunication  equipment such as mast in terms of the emissions of signal which could result into  cancer and skin burns would  be explained in the research.

 

1.2           AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The study  is aimed at analyzing  the s patio- temporal  impact of telecommunication network coverage  in Nigeria with specific  reference  to CELTEL’s Coverage in Lagos.

 To achieve the above aim, the below objectives are:

ü      To evaluate the spatio- temporal  impact of CELTEL  coverage  on economic  growth in Lagos state.

ü      To determine  the impact of telecommunication on socio-cultural  integration of people living  in Lagos.

ü       To analyze its impact  on the environment i.e.  telecommunication equipment e.g.  Cables and boxes and now  telecommunication Mast.

ü      To recommend possible solution and  suggestions for further enforcement  in telecommunication Services  in Lagos, Nigeria.

 

1.3    RESEARCH QUESTION

1.       How many subscribers   are presently  connected to  in Nigeria.

(b)      Who do they use their phone to call and  how often  do they call e.g. lover , family member, friends, people outside  Lagos and business partner.

2.       How much do commercial phone outlets make in a day, week or month.

(b)              What is the number of employee in this outlets.

(c)                How much do they  pay  at the end of the month.

3.       How many base station do CELTEL  have in Lagos state.

(b)  What is their condition like in terms  of emission, how many  case of cancer skin burns have been recorded  if any in such area.

(4).     What is the tele-density of Nigeria

 

1.4    STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS 

Ho:    There is no relationship in the impact of telecommunication growth on environmental, social, and economic development witnessed in rural Lagos and urban centers of Lagos state.

Hi:     There is a relationship in the impact of telecommunication  growth on environmental, social, and economic development witnessed in rural Lagos and urban centers of Lagos state.

         

1.5    STUDY AREA

Lagos  is the  largest city in Nigeria, as only  two census (in 1972 and 1991)  have been taken since independence,  estimates of its population vary considerably, but  generally  range from 10 to 15.5million  people, makings it one  of the most populous cities in Africa. But recent census result conducted in june 2006,  shows that Lagos state has a population of about 9.04 million, although here have been contending figures produced by the Lagos state government  shows that it has about 13million people.

 The climate in Lagos  is similar  to that up of the rest of southern Nigeria.  There are  two main seasons, with  the  heaviest  rains  falling  from April  to July.  The main  dry season  is accompanied  by harmathan winds  from he Sahara Desert,  which between  December and early  February  can  be quite strong.

Lagos is located in longitude 6o27o - 11oN and latitude 3o23o - 45oE and the area of the city   is 787km2,   area of land 614km2 and water 173.14km2.

Lagos consist   of a large lagoon and an archipelago  of large  islands  in the lagoon.  The three Islands in  Lagos are Lagos Island,  Ikoyi and Victoria  Island which is connected  to the  mainland  by three large bridges, Eko  Bridge, Carter bridge and Third Mainland Bridge, while  the districts on the mainland  isnclude Ebute-Meta, Surelere,  Yaba (Lagos), Mushin, Maryland and Ikeja.

Lagos  is Nigeria leading port, the port of Lagos, operated by the NPA  is sight into  two  main sector, Lagos port, Apapa port and Tin Can Port,  all located  on the  Gulf of Guinea, the poor features a railway. Lagos is also Nigeria’s commercial center. Many of the country’s largest banks and financial institutions a re located here. More  than half of  Nigeria’s  industrial capacity is located in Lagos mainland suburb particularly in Ikeja  industrial estates.

 Transport in Lagos consist of ferries and highways link  the parts  of the city  together,  however, transport links within Lagos are congested, due in part  to the geography of the city, as well as its explosive population growth.  The lagos - ibadan express way and Lagos - Abeokuta expressway are the major arterial routes  in the city and serves as an inter-state  highways   to Ibadan, Oyo state and Abeokuta, Ogun State respectively.  The Lagos-Ibadan expressway also serves as a Christian highway because every first Friday of every month, the  highway  links  over 500,000 Lagosians  with the kilometer 42  Redeemed Christian Church  Camp.

 The  area  is also particular  famous  for its music and  highlife, notably  in areas a round Yaba and Surulere, as well as the National Stadium  complex.  Other  area of the mainland include  the middle class, slums, and suburbs of Ebute-Meta, Surulere,  Yaba, Mushin and Ikeja.

Lagos island is the nerve center  of the city and contains many of the largest markets in Lagos,  its  central  business  district,  the central mosque,  and the Oba’s palace.  Though largely derelict, Tinubu Square on the North and South  to place in 1914.

 Perhaps the description would not be completed  without  mentioning  CELTEL. A telecommunication  company in Nigeria to be precise a GSM company. Four years ago  just about on the (August 6, 2001). Econet wireless  Nigeria, acquired  the license  of being the first  company to Launch  commercial GSM  service  in Nigeria. After while it was change into Vmoble Nigeria  not until recently following  the acquisition  of 65%  of Vmobile  share  by CELTEL, it became the  lion share  holder and as such  the name   CELTEL  Nigeria Plc.

 

1.6    SCOPE OF STUDY

This study will cover the impact of  telecommunication  growths  on both Environment, Social and Economic life of the people  of Nigeria.  Things to do are:         

i.                   Graphical representation of the growth of telecommunication subscribers in Nigeria over space and time. 

ii.                 Statistical analysis of economic development as a result of telecommunication  growth  in  Lagos.

iii.              Distribution of Base station  of CELETEL in Lagos state over space with  the  aid  of Microsoft EXCEL.

iv.                Map presentation of CELETEL coverage in Nigeria  will specific reference to Lagos  using .

v.                  To proffer/recommend possible solution for further  improvement  in telecommunication services  in Nigeria.

 Things  the research would not cover

i.                      Other telecommunication network  coverage but they would be mentioned for record purpose.

ii.                    Emphasis would be placed on Lagos State alone.

 

1.7    SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

It is a  recognizable  fact  that the  successes recorded by telecommunication  industry in Nigeria  between the year 2001 and 2006 a re well known around the world and that the need to produce appropriate indices and data on outcome  of CELTEL”s  network coverage and the impact  telecommunication coverage in Nigeria,  which  has to do with spatial and temporal  dimension of Economic and social impact.

The data or research is of a benefit to us  in other to deduce  that there is a direct connection  between  the telecommunication  growth and economic and social  growth. And also whether the telecommunication operation instrument such as  mast  has environmental impact such as  healthy nature  of the environment  in terms of the emissions which will lead  to Cancer or skin burns. The compilation, updating, organizing, storage and  retrieval for usage of details of any spatial application of probabilities methods to regionalized  data and variable. So data such as impact of telecom  coverage  can be reviewed, updated for usage from time  to time  with the aid  of this research.

  

1.8    DEFINITION OF TERMS

          CAD- Computer Aided Design

Chart- A page of sheet of information  inform  of a diagram.

CIA-Central  Intelligence Agency

Co-ordinates- Either of two numbers or letters used  to fix the position  of a point on a map.

Coverage- the amount  of something that another  thing provide.

DATA- a quantitative information.

DBMS-  Database Management System

Graph- a planed drawing  consisting of link(s)

GSM- Global System  for Mobile Communication

JED- Joint Economic Development

Model- a  copy of something  on a much smaller scale.

NEEDS-  National  Economic Empowerment Development Strategy.

Network- A group  of workstations in different places  that are connected to provide specific service(s)

Region- an administrative  division  of a country

Services- a system that supply public needs

SMS- Short  Message Services

Subscribers- Number of people taking part  in an activity, use or service.  

System- a set  of connected  things that form a w hole or work together.

Temporal- a secular denoting  time.

Variables- Number  of quality  that cant  vary  or be  varied.

Workstations- location of a stage in production or manufacturing process.

Zones- an area  with peculiar characteristics purpose, or use. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

2.0LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

2.1:   LITERATURE REVIEW

Telecommunication is the transmission of signals over a distance for the purpose of communication. In modern times, this process almost always involves the sending of electromagnetic waves by electronic transmitters but in earlier years it may have involved the use of smoke signals, drums or semaphore.

Today, telecommunication is widespread and devices that assist the process such as the television, radio and telephone are common in many parts of the world. There is also a vast array of networks that connect these devices, including computer networks, public telephone networks, radio networks and television networks. Computer communication across the Internet, such as e-mail and instant messaging, is just one of many examples of telecommunication.

 

2.1.1: EARLY TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Early forms of telecommunication include smoke signals and drums. Natives in Africa, New Guinea and South America used drums whereas natives in North America and China used smoke signals. Contrary to what one might think, these systems were often used to do more than merely announce the presence of a camp.

In 1792, a French engineer, Claude Chappe built the first fixed visual telegraphy (or semaphore) system between Lille and Paris. However semaphore as a communication system suffered from the need for skilled operators and expensive towers often at intervals of only ten to thirty kilometers (six to nineteen miles). As a result, the last commercial line was abandoned in 1880.

Telegraph and telephone

The first commercial electrical telegraph was constructed by Sir Charles Wheatstone and Sir William Fothergill Cooke and opened on 9 April 1839. Both Wheatstone and Cooke viewed their device as "an improvement to the [existing] electromagnetic telegraph" not as a new device.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, Samuel Morse independently developed a version of the electrical telegraph that he unsuccessfully demonstrated on 2 September 1837. Soon after Alfred Vail who developed the register joined him — a telegraph terminal that integrated a logging device for recording messages to paper tape. This was demonstrated successfully on 6 January 1838. The first transatlantic telegraph cable was successfully completed on 27 July 1866, allowing transatlantic telecommunication for the first time.

  Alexander Bell invented the conventional telephone in 1876. Although in 1849 Antonio Meucci invented a device that allowed the electrical transmission of voice over a line. Meucci's device depended upon the electrophonic effect and was of little practical value because it required users to place the receiver in their mouth to “hear” what was being said. The first commercial telephone services were set-up in 1878 and 1879 on both sides of the Atlantic in the cities of New Haven and London.                                                         

 2.1.2:         SOCIETY AND TELECOMMUNICATION

Telecommunication is an important part of many modern societies. In 2006, estimates place the telecommunication industry's revenue at $1.2 trillion or just under 3% of the gross world product. Good telecommunication infrastructure is widely acknowledged as important for economic success in the modern world both on a micro and macroeconomic scale. And, for this reason, there is increasing worry about the so-called digital divide. Figures such as Kofi Annan, Jeffrey Sachs, Al Gore, Michael Moore and Newt Gingrich have all noted that

"over half the world's population has never made or received a phone call." While this is probably true, critics note that the statement is often made without attribution to research. That said, the truth remains that access to telecommunication systems is not equally shared amongst the world's population. A 2003 survey by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) revealed that roughly one-third of countries have less than 1 mobile subscription for every 20 people and one-third of countries have less than 1 fixed line subscription for every 20 people. In terms of Internet access, roughly half of countries have less than 1 in 20 people with Internet access.”

From this information as well as educational data the ITU was able to compile a Digital Access Index that measures the overall ability of citizens to access and use information and communication technologies. Using this measure, countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Iceland receive the highest ranking while African countries such as Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali receive the lowest.

Further discussion of the social impact of telecommunication is often considered part of communication theory.

2.1.3:          MOBILE AND INTERNET: TWO INNOVATIONS

The origins of the mobile communications industry date from the licensing of analogue cellular communications services in the early 1980s. As recently as 1990, there were only 11 million subscribers worldwide, but the introduction of digital services in the early 1990s, combined with competitive service provision and a shift to prepaid billing, spurred rapid growth in demand. At the end of 2003, there were over 1.35 billion mobile subscribers worldwide, compared with 1.2 billion fixed-line users(ITU). The origins of the Internet go back to 1969, but it was in the early 1990s, with the development of the World Wide Web and graphical browsers, that the Internet really took off as a commercial undertaking. By the end of 2001, the Internet had passed the half billion user mark. Although the “dot.com” boom of the late 1990s proved to be short-lived, the Internet itself has continued to grow, adding more users and new applications.     As Figure 2.1 shows, the mobile and Internet industries have exhibited remarkably similar growth patterns since the start of the 1990s, but with a lag of about two years. The level of penetration of the Internet at the end of 2001 (8.2 users for every 100 inhabitants, worldwide) is almost identical to the penetration of mobile phones at the end of 1999. This two year lag might be explained by the fact that the formative moments in the growth of these industries occurred just under two years apart: digital cellphones were launched commercially on 1 July 1991 (by Radiolinja, in Finland), while graphical web browsers were launched commercially in April 1993.

 

2.1.4: PERSPECTIVES ON TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND TRANSPORTATION

Surface travel volume is made up of vehicle trips. Telecommunications volume is made up of electronic and optical information flows. Conventional wisdom holds that telecommunications is a force for reducing travel by moving information electromagnetically over cables and through the air instead of moving people and paper in vehicles. A main conclusion of this report is that this view is overly simplistic and contrary to observations from everyday life.

The usual methodology of studies supporting the travel substitution hypothesis is to define a limited set of telecommunications applications that indeed reduce travel, such as telecommuting. The travel substitution impact of a reasonably larger number of such events is then extrapolated by summing the effects of these individual events. The following lists of trip elimination and trip stimulation mechanisms of telecommunications illustrate the complexity inherent in travel-telecommunications interactions.

The trip elimination effects of telecommunications tend to operate at the "micro" level of individual transactions and events.

  • Telecommunications allows workers who would normally commute from home to a work location to telecommute from home or from a location closer to home.
  • Telecommunications allows information to be sent in electronic form rather than in physical "document" form.
  • Telecommunications enables humans to communicate remotely rather than travel to common meeting locations.
  • Telecommunications allows sporting, entertainment, political, religious, and other events to be broadcast to a dispersed audience instead of having the audience travel to the event.
  • Telecommunications enables observations from dispersed sites to be collected and transmitted to a central point via remote sensing rather than by a human observer.
  • Telecommunicatio